Prediction Markets In 2026: Deeper Liquidity and Sharper Pricing

Sebastien Sabic, Moon Intelligence Co-Founder and CSO, assesses the evolution of U.S. prediction markets and outlines how platforms can sharpen their approach to deliver long-term success 

The continued growth of prediction markets is an absolute certainty in 2026, evident by the fact that traditional sportsbook operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel are launching their own prediction offerings. This form of betting is no longer a sideshow and is being propelled into the mainstream.

Betting on anything and everything has certainly grabbed the attention of a wide audience in the U.S. and beyond, and this appetite shows no signs of slowing down. Analysts firm Citizen estimates that annual revenues could reach more than US$10 billion (£7.42bn) by 2030. 

And with Kalshi and Polymarket percentages appearing on-screen during major TV broadcasts, this phenomenon is becoming truly embedded within popular culture.

While prediction markets offer individuals the chance to bet on a greater variety of outcomes, including those who are set to win an Oscar, for example, or when Apple will release its next major product launch, ultimately it will be sports-led markets that will dominate the space over the foreseeable future.

Considering the influx of new operators entering the predictions ecosystem, there will inevitably be a need for product differentiation to acquire and retain new customers. 

Increased competition provides an opportunity to embrace new approaches and evolve offerings to remain attractive and competitive.

As a specialist in market making for prediction markets, we see two clear differentiators that will give platforms the edge in 2026 – large liquidity and improved content variety.

Focusing on these crucial areas will drive business growth. 

Sharper focus on price

Prediction markets are completely focused on offering the best price. 

Ultimately, those that attract the most traders are likely to succeed this ambition and gain long-term success. That is the key difference compared to traditional sportsbooks.

Having tighter spreads and increased liquidity is a must for prediction markets in 2026. This will allow such operators to take on more customers and grow their business further. 

Of course, improving the liquidity pool and delivering the best prices is no easy feat. But this can be achieved by offering better options compared to retail markets. 

Fees are another factor to consider, especially when structures differ across the wider ecosystem and have a negative impact that is felt by the end-user.

However, superior trading expertise and the ability to create the sharpest prices is the most effective way to drive platforms forward. And pricing is one of our specialisms at Moon Intelligence, having operated within some of the toughest markets in the world against the sharpest syndicates. 

AI key to platform progression

The impact AI will have on the gambling/predictions sector in 2026 cannot be underestimated. The technology is already fundamental across many areas of the wider ecosystem, and its rapid progression will benefit markets in the long term. 

One clear impact is its role in sharpening operational efficiencies, in particular the ability to deliver attractive prices across more markets and sports. This is crucial, as we expect platforms to increase the sports that customers can interact with. 

AI has been central to development of our models at Moon Intelligence, with advanced machine learning forming the foundation of our odds creation for prediction markets. This enables us to significantly process large volumes of data with speed and precision. 

Crucially, this is overseen by input from a highly experienced team of over 50 traders across 35 countries worldwide. 

The combination of powerful technology and the sharpest trading minds is a game changer in delivering fair and attractive prices that benefit prediction markets and their customers. 

We are entering a new era of prediction markets in 2026 and there is growing intrigue as to how this phenomenon will move forward. 

While regulatory hurdles still exist, a growing number of organisations are looking to invest in the sector given its high potential. 

At Moon Intelligence, we are fully committed to furthering the performance of U.S. prediction markets and look forward to taking the experience to new heights through our price making expertise.